Reach high Optimus production for external companies during 2026.
Evidence chain
From statement to verdict.
- 01
Original statement
Reach high Optimus production for external companies during 2026.
Jul 22, 2024 · Prediction or Forecast
- 02
Measurable target
2026-12-31
Deadline has not elapsed
- 03
Observed outcome
The 2026 external-production target remains open through December 31, 2026 and is not yet scored.
Evaluated Jul 26, 2026
- 04
Verdict and score
Pending
Excluded from the 22% calculation. The external-production deadline had not elapsed by July 26, 2026.
Record details
How this row was evaluated.
- Subject category
- Business & Technology
- Organization or context
- Tesla
- Relationship to organization
- Current affiliation
- Assertion mode
- Direct public statement quoted by independent reporting
- Deadline result
- Deadline has not elapsed
- Eventual outcome
- Pending
- Factual accuracy
- Not applicable
- Strict promise result
- Pending
- Status rule version
- strict-promise-v1.0
- Canonical classification
- Pending
- Score points
- Not scored
- Included in headline score
- No
- Exclusion reason
- The external-production deadline had not elapsed by July 26, 2026.
- Research confidence
- Medium
- Credible-source contestation
- No
- Contestation resolution
- No matured outcome exists yet.
- Correction status
- No correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row
- Deleted after challenge
- Not established from the cited evidence
- Repeated after correction
- Not established from the cited evidence
Intent stays separate
Was intentional deception established?
Not assessable
- Detailed assessment
- Not assessable
- Intent evidence level
- Not assessable
Intent is not assessed because the underlying claim is Pending or Unresolved. A state-of-mind conclusion would outrun the available evidence.
“No” does not mean the statement was true. It means the cited evidence did not meet the higher standard needed to establish the speaker's state of mind.
Why this distinction mattersEvidence strength
A disclosed measure of evidence quality—not a probability.
Component scores measure source quality, corroboration, and directness. Verdict confidence begins with that evidence strength and applies the deductions documented in the methodology.
Quality and directness of evidence that Musk made the statement.
Quality of evidence establishing the outcome.
Independent corroboration across sources and domains.
How directly the evidence resolves the proposition.
- Evidence sources
- 2
- Independent source domains
- 2
- Claim audit
- Complete
- Source audit
- Pass
Source fields and evidence metrics populated.
Citations
Read the underlying sources.
Field-level evaluation audit
Every calculated output carries its own evidence basis.
Open any of the 12 audited outputs to see its calculated value, written basis, rule, and cited sources.
01Deadline resultDeadline has not elapsed
Evidence basis
Compared the original target/timeframe (“2026-12-31”) with the documented outcome. Result: Deadline has not elapsed. Evidence: Tesla to have humanoid robots for internal use next year, Musk says; Tesla Q4 2025 earnings call transcript. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-have-humanoid-robots-internal-use-next-year-musk-says-2024-07-22/; https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/
Calculation rule
Compare original target with documented timing.
- Evidence strength
- 70 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 70 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
02Eventual outcomePending
Evidence basis
Classified the later real-world result independently from the headline verdict. Result: Pending. Documented outcome: The 2026 external-production target remains open through December 31, 2026 and is not yet scored. Evidence: Tesla to have humanoid robots for internal use next year, Musk says; Tesla Q4 2025 earnings call transcript. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-have-humanoid-robots-internal-use-next-year-musk-says-2024-07-22/; https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/
Calculation rule
Classify the later real-world outcome separately from the headline verdict.
- Evidence strength
- 70 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 70 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
03Factual accuracyNot applicable
Evidence basis
Compared the normalized proposition with the cited records. Result: Not applicable. Documented outcome: The 2026 external-production target remains open through December 31, 2026 and is not yet scored. Evidence: Tesla to have humanoid robots for internal use next year, Musk says; Tesla Q4 2025 earnings call transcript. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-have-humanoid-robots-internal-use-next-year-musk-says-2024-07-22/; https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/
Calculation rule
Compare the normalized factual proposition with cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 70 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 70 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
04Canonical verdictPending
Evidence basis
Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: Pending (Pending). Evidence finding: The 2026 external-production target remains open through December 31, 2026 and is not yet scored. Evidence: Tesla to have humanoid robots for internal use next year, Musk says; Tesla Q4 2025 earnings call transcript. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-have-humanoid-robots-internal-use-next-year-musk-says-2024-07-22/; https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/
Calculation rule
Apply strict promise rule or published factual-claim classification.
- Evidence strength
- 70 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 70 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
05Score points
Evidence basis
Score assigned mechanically from verdict and claim type under strict-promise-v1.0: Pending = excluded points.
Calculation rule
Map verdict mechanically to points under the applicable rule.
- Evidence strength
- 70 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 70 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
06Inclusion in the Trust ScoreNo
Evidence basis
Excluded because the verdict is Pending: The external-production deadline had not elapsed by July 26, 2026.
Calculation rule
Include only resolved evidence-based verdicts.
- Evidence strength
- 70 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 70 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
07Research confidenceMedium
Evidence basis
Evidence strength 70/100 = statement 28/30 + outcome 30/40 + corroboration 0/15 + directness 12/15. Published deductions yield verdict confidence 70/100 (Medium).
Calculation rule
Calculate from evidence components and published deductions.
- Evidence strength
- 70 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 70 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
08Credible-source contestationNo
Evidence basis
Credible-source contestation: No. Resolution: No matured outcome exists yet. Evidence URLs: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-have-humanoid-robots-internal-use-next-year-musk-says-2024-07-22/; https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/
Calculation rule
Record material credible-source disagreement separately from verdict.
- Evidence strength
- 70 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 70 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
09Correction statusNo correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row
Evidence basis
Correction status is bounded to the cited record: No correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row. Evidence URLs: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-have-humanoid-robots-internal-use-next-year-musk-says-2024-07-22/; https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/
Calculation rule
Bound correction finding to cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 70 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 70 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
10Repetition after correctionNot established from the cited evidence
Evidence basis
Repeated after correction: Not established from the cited evidence. Minimum documented repetition count: not established. Evidence URLs: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-have-humanoid-robots-internal-use-next-year-musk-says-2024-07-22/; https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/
Calculation rule
Bound repetition finding to cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 70 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 70 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
11Intentional-deception answerNot assessable
Evidence basis
Intent is not assessed because the underlying claim is Pending or Unresolved. A state-of-mind conclusion would outrun the available evidence.
Calculation rule
Require direct admission, adjudicated intent finding, or comparably conclusive state-of-mind evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 70 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 70 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
12Strict promise resultPending
Evidence basis
Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: Pending (Pending). Evidence finding: The 2026 external-production target remains open through December 31, 2026 and is not yet scored. Evidence: Tesla to have humanoid robots for internal use next year, Musk says; Tesla Q4 2025 earnings call transcript. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-have-humanoid-robots-internal-use-next-year-musk-says-2024-07-22/; https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/
Calculation rule
Pass only if every material promise or forecast term was met; otherwise Fail, Pending, Unresolved, or Not applicable.
- Evidence strength
- 70 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 70 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
Audit trail
Selection and scoring notes.
- v5 classification rationale
- Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: Pending (Pending). Evidence finding: The 2026 external-production target remains open through December 31, 2026 and is not yet scored. Evidence: Tesla to have humanoid robots for internal use next year, Musk says; Tesla Q4 2025 earnings call transcript. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-have-humanoid-robots-internal-use-next-year-musk-says-2024-07-22/; https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/28/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/
- v4 → v5 source-package migration audit
- New V5 record. Added from new source review under V5 inclusion rules.
- Selection basis
- V5 expansion selected under published materiality and evidence rules
- Source quality
- Independent statement documentation paired with direct or independently corroborated outcome evidence.
- Methodology note
- V5 uses strict-promise-v1.0. Later delivery does not earn partial credit for a missed dated promise. False does not automatically establish intentional deception.