Launch Tesla’s monthly Full Self-Driving subscription in May 2021, calling it a “sure thing.”
Evidence chain
From statement to verdict.
- 01
Original statement
Launch Tesla’s monthly Full Self-Driving subscription in May 2021, calling it a “sure thing.”
Apr 14, 2021 · Promise or Commitment
- 02
Measurable target
2021-05-31
Missed by about six weeks
- 03
Observed outcome
Tesla launched the Full Self-Driving subscription on July 16, 2021, after the promised May launch month.
Evaluated Jul 26, 2026
- 04
Verdict and score
False — Missed Deadline
0 of 100 points under the v5 rubric. Promise/forecast verdict: At least one matured material term failed, including a deadline miss, incomplete scope, reversal, or incorrect forecast. Factual verdict: Reliable evidence contradicts the central proposition.
Record details
How this row was evaluated.
- Subject category
- Business & Technology
- Organization or context
- Tesla
- Relationship to organization
- Current affiliation
- Assertion mode
- Direct public statement quoted by independent reporting
- Deadline result
- Missed by about six weeks
- Eventual outcome
- Launched later
- Factual accuracy
- Not applicable
- Strict promise result
- Fail
- Status rule version
- strict-promise-v1.0
- Canonical classification
- False
- Score points
- 0 / 100
- Included in headline score
- Yes
- Research confidence
- Medium-High
- Credible-source contestation
- No
- Contestation resolution
- Launch date is documented and falls outside May 2021.
- Correction status
- No correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row
- Deleted after challenge
- Not established from the cited evidence
- Repeated after correction
- Not established from the cited evidence
Later-delivery context: Later outcome retained for context: Tesla launched the Full Self-Driving subscription on July 16, 2021, after the promised May launch month. Under strict-promise-v1.0, later delivery does not satisfy the original deadline or restore points.
Intent stays separate
Was intentional deception established?
No
- Detailed assessment
- Not established
- Intent evidence level
- No conclusive state-of-mind evidence
The evidence establishes the outcome or factual error but does not conclusively establish knowledge of falsity at the time of the statement.
“No” does not mean the statement was true. It means the cited evidence did not meet the higher standard needed to establish the speaker's state of mind.
Why this distinction mattersEvidence strength
A disclosed measure of evidence quality—not a probability.
Component scores measure source quality, corroboration, and directness. Verdict confidence begins with that evidence strength and applies the deductions documented in the methodology.
Quality and directness of evidence that Musk made the statement.
Quality of evidence establishing the outcome.
Independent corroboration across sources and domains.
How directly the evidence resolves the proposition.
- Evidence sources
- 3
- Independent source domains
- 1
- Claim audit
- Complete
- Source audit
- Pass
Source fields and evidence metrics populated.
Citations
Read the underlying sources.
Field-level evaluation audit
Every calculated output carries its own evidence basis.
Open any of the 12 audited outputs to see its calculated value, written basis, rule, and cited sources.
01Deadline resultMissed by about six weeks
Evidence basis
Compared the original target/timeframe (“2021-05-31”) with the documented outcome. Result: Missed by about six weeks. Evidence: Musk says FSD subscription is a sure thing for May; Tesla launches Full Self-Driving subscription for $199 per month; Tesla Full Self-Driving subscription support page. URLs: https://electrek.co/2021/04/14/tesla-next-gen-full-self-driving-delayed-to-may-june-subscription/; https://electrek.co/2021/07/16/tesla-launches-full-self-driving-subscription-package-199-per-month/; https://www.tesla.com/support/fsd-subscription
Calculation rule
Compare original target with documented timing.
- Evidence strength
- 83 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 83 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
02Eventual outcomeLaunched later
Evidence basis
Classified the later real-world result independently from the headline verdict. Result: Launched later. Documented outcome: Tesla launched the Full Self-Driving subscription on July 16, 2021, after the promised May launch month. Evidence: Musk says FSD subscription is a sure thing for May; Tesla launches Full Self-Driving subscription for $199 per month; Tesla Full Self-Driving subscription support page. URLs: https://electrek.co/2021/04/14/tesla-next-gen-full-self-driving-delayed-to-may-june-subscription/; https://electrek.co/2021/07/16/tesla-launches-full-self-driving-subscription-package-199-per-month/; https://www.tesla.com/support/fsd-subscription
Calculation rule
Classify the later real-world outcome separately from the headline verdict.
- Evidence strength
- 83 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 83 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
03Factual accuracyNot applicable
Evidence basis
Compared the normalized proposition with the cited records. Result: Not applicable. Documented outcome: Tesla launched the Full Self-Driving subscription on July 16, 2021, after the promised May launch month. Evidence: Musk says FSD subscription is a sure thing for May; Tesla launches Full Self-Driving subscription for $199 per month; Tesla Full Self-Driving subscription support page. URLs: https://electrek.co/2021/04/14/tesla-next-gen-full-self-driving-delayed-to-may-june-subscription/; https://electrek.co/2021/07/16/tesla-launches-full-self-driving-subscription-package-199-per-month/; https://www.tesla.com/support/fsd-subscription
Calculation rule
Compare the normalized factual proposition with cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 83 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 83 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
04Canonical verdictFalse
Evidence basis
Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: False (False — Missed Deadline). Evidence finding: Tesla launched the Full Self-Driving subscription on July 16, 2021, after the promised May launch month. Evidence: Musk says FSD subscription is a sure thing for May; Tesla launches Full Self-Driving subscription for $199 per month; Tesla Full Self-Driving subscription support page. URLs: https://electrek.co/2021/04/14/tesla-next-gen-full-self-driving-delayed-to-may-june-subscription/; https://electrek.co/2021/07/16/tesla-launches-full-self-driving-subscription-package-199-per-month/; https://www.tesla.com/support/fsd-subscription
Calculation rule
Apply strict promise rule or published factual-claim classification.
- Evidence strength
- 83 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 83 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
05Score points0
Evidence basis
Score assigned mechanically from verdict and claim type under strict-promise-v1.0: False = 0 points.
Calculation rule
Map verdict mechanically to points under the applicable rule.
- Evidence strength
- 83 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 83 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
06Inclusion in the Trust ScoreYes
Evidence basis
Included because the claim has a resolved evidence-based verdict.
Calculation rule
Include only resolved evidence-based verdicts.
- Evidence strength
- 83 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 83 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
07Research confidenceMedium-High
Evidence basis
Evidence strength 83/100 = statement 26/30 + outcome 34/40 + corroboration 8/15 + directness 15/15. Published deductions yield verdict confidence 83/100 (Medium-High).
Calculation rule
Calculate from evidence components and published deductions.
- Evidence strength
- 83 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 83 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
08Credible-source contestationNo
Evidence basis
Credible-source contestation: No. Resolution: Launch date is documented and falls outside May 2021. Evidence URLs: https://electrek.co/2021/04/14/tesla-next-gen-full-self-driving-delayed-to-may-june-subscription/; https://electrek.co/2021/07/16/tesla-launches-full-self-driving-subscription-package-199-per-month/; https://www.tesla.com/support/fsd-subscription
Calculation rule
Record material credible-source disagreement separately from verdict.
- Evidence strength
- 83 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 83 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
09Correction statusNo correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row
Evidence basis
Correction status is bounded to the cited record: No correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row. Evidence URLs: https://electrek.co/2021/04/14/tesla-next-gen-full-self-driving-delayed-to-may-june-subscription/; https://electrek.co/2021/07/16/tesla-launches-full-self-driving-subscription-package-199-per-month/; https://www.tesla.com/support/fsd-subscription
Calculation rule
Bound correction finding to cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 83 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 83 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
10Repetition after correctionNot established from the cited evidence
Evidence basis
Repeated after correction: Not established from the cited evidence. Minimum documented repetition count: not established. Evidence URLs: https://electrek.co/2021/04/14/tesla-next-gen-full-self-driving-delayed-to-may-june-subscription/; https://electrek.co/2021/07/16/tesla-launches-full-self-driving-subscription-package-199-per-month/; https://www.tesla.com/support/fsd-subscription
Calculation rule
Bound repetition finding to cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 83 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 83 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
11Intentional-deception answerNo
Evidence basis
The evidence establishes the outcome or factual error but does not conclusively establish knowledge of falsity at the time of the statement.
Calculation rule
Require direct admission, adjudicated intent finding, or comparably conclusive state-of-mind evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 83 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 83 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
12Strict promise resultFail
Evidence basis
Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: False (False — Missed Deadline). Evidence finding: Tesla launched the Full Self-Driving subscription on July 16, 2021, after the promised May launch month. Evidence: Musk says FSD subscription is a sure thing for May; Tesla launches Full Self-Driving subscription for $199 per month; Tesla Full Self-Driving subscription support page. URLs: https://electrek.co/2021/04/14/tesla-next-gen-full-self-driving-delayed-to-may-june-subscription/; https://electrek.co/2021/07/16/tesla-launches-full-self-driving-subscription-package-199-per-month/; https://www.tesla.com/support/fsd-subscription
Calculation rule
Pass only if every material promise or forecast term was met; otherwise Fail, Pending, Unresolved, or Not applicable.
- Evidence strength
- 83 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 83 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
Audit trail
Selection and scoring notes.
- v5 classification rationale
- Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: False (False — Missed Deadline). Evidence finding: Tesla launched the Full Self-Driving subscription on July 16, 2021, after the promised May launch month. Evidence: Musk says FSD subscription is a sure thing for May; Tesla launches Full Self-Driving subscription for $199 per month; Tesla Full Self-Driving subscription support page. URLs: https://electrek.co/2021/04/14/tesla-next-gen-full-self-driving-delayed-to-may-june-subscription/; https://electrek.co/2021/07/16/tesla-launches-full-self-driving-subscription-package-199-per-month/; https://www.tesla.com/support/fsd-subscription
- v4 → v5 source-package migration audit
- New V5 record. Added from new source review under V5 inclusion rules.
- Selection basis
- V5 expansion selected under published materiality and evidence rules
- Source quality
- Independent statement documentation paired with direct or independently corroborated outcome evidence.
- Methodology note
- V5 uses strict-promise-v1.0. Later delivery does not earn partial credit for a missed dated promise. False does not automatically establish intentional deception.