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TESLA-004Mar 17, 2008Business & TechnologyTeslaPromise or Commitment

Deliver Tesla's next five-passenger sports sedan in 2010.

False — Missed Deadline0%Medium-Low confidence

Evidence chain

From statement to verdict.

  1. 01

    Original statement

    Deliver Tesla's next five-passenger sports sedan in 2010.

    Mar 17, 2008 · Promise or Commitment

  2. 02

    Measurable target

    2010

    Missed by roughly two years

  3. 03

    Observed outcome

    Customer deliveries of Model S began in June 2012, roughly two years after the promised 2010 delivery year.

    Evaluated Jul 26, 2026

  4. 04

    Verdict and score

    False — Missed Deadline

    0 of 100 points under the v5 rubric. Promise/forecast verdict: At least one matured material term failed, including a deadline miss, incomplete scope, reversal, or incorrect forecast. Factual verdict: Reliable evidence contradicts the central proposition.

Record details

How this row was evaluated.

Subject category
Business & Technology
Organization or context
Tesla
Relationship to organization
Current affiliation
Assertion mode
Direct statement or documented commitment; exact mode not systematically classified in v2
Deadline result
Missed by roughly two years
Eventual outcome
Fulfilled later, outside the promise
Factual accuracy
Not applicable
Strict promise result
Fail
Status rule version
strict-promise-v1.0
Canonical classification
False
Score points
0 / 100
Included in headline score
Yes
Research confidence
Medium-Low
Credible-source contestation
No
Correction status
No correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row
Deleted after challenge
Not established from the cited evidence
Repeated after correction
Not established from the cited evidence
Evidence-documented repetition count
At least 1 documented instance

Later-delivery context: Later outcome retained for context: Customer deliveries of Model S began in June 2012, roughly two years after the promised 2010 delivery year. Under strict-promise-v1.0, later delivery does not satisfy the original deadline or restore points.

Intent stays separate

Was intentional deception established?

No

Detailed assessment
Not established
Intent evidence level
0 / 3

The cited evidence establishes material missing context, framing, delay, or partial delivery, but it does not directly establish Musk’s contemporaneous knowledge or purpose. Misleading outcome and intentional deception are evaluated separately.

“No” does not mean the statement was true. It means the cited evidence did not meet the higher standard needed to establish the speaker's state of mind.

Why this distinction matters

Evidence strength

A disclosed measure of evidence quality—not a probability.

Component scores measure source quality, corroboration, and directness. Verdict confidence begins with that evidence strength and applies the deductions documented in the methodology.

Evidence strength68of 100
Verdict confidence58Medium-Low
Statement evidence quality30 / 30

Quality and directness of evidence that Musk made the statement.

Outcome evidence quality26 / 40

Quality of evidence establishing the outcome.

Corroboration0 / 15

Independent corroboration across sources and domains.

Directness12 / 15

How directly the evidence resolves the proposition.

Evidence sources
2
Independent source domains
0
Claim audit
Complete
Source audit
Pass

Outcome evidence is party-only; confidence deduction applied. No independent source domain in the cited evidence.

Citations

Read the underlying sources.

Field-level evaluation audit

Every calculated output carries its own evidence basis.

Open any of the 12 audited outputs to see its calculated value, written basis, rule, and cited sources.

01Deadline resultMissed by roughly two years

Evidence basis

Compared the original target/timeframe (“2010”) with the documented outcome. Result: Missed by roughly two years. Evidence: Tesla Motors Begins Regular Production of 2008 Tesla Roadster; Tesla Motors Delivers World's First Premium Electric Sedan. URLs: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-begins-regular-production-2008-tesla-roadster; https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-delivers-worlds-first-premium-electric-sedan

Calculation rule

Compare original target with documented timing.

Evidence strength
68 / 100
Verdict confidence
58 / 100 · Medium-Low
Audit status
Complete
02Eventual outcomeFulfilled later, outside the promise

Evidence basis

Classified the later real-world result independently from the headline verdict. Result: Fulfilled later, outside the promise. Documented outcome: Customer deliveries of Model S began in June 2012, roughly two years after the promised 2010 delivery year. Evidence: Tesla Motors Begins Regular Production of 2008 Tesla Roadster; Tesla Motors Delivers World's First Premium Electric Sedan. URLs: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-begins-regular-production-2008-tesla-roadster; https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-delivers-worlds-first-premium-electric-sedan

Calculation rule

Classify the later real-world outcome separately from the headline verdict.

Evidence strength
68 / 100
Verdict confidence
58 / 100 · Medium-Low
Audit status
Complete
03Factual accuracyNot applicable

Evidence basis

Compared the normalized proposition with the cited records. Result: Not applicable. Documented outcome: Customer deliveries of Model S began in June 2012, roughly two years after the promised 2010 delivery year. Evidence: Tesla Motors Begins Regular Production of 2008 Tesla Roadster; Tesla Motors Delivers World's First Premium Electric Sedan. URLs: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-begins-regular-production-2008-tesla-roadster; https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-delivers-worlds-first-premium-electric-sedan

Calculation rule

Compare the normalized factual proposition with cited evidence.

Evidence strength
68 / 100
Verdict confidence
58 / 100 · Medium-Low
Audit status
Complete
04Canonical verdictFalse

Evidence basis

Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: False (False — Missed Deadline). Evidence finding: Customer deliveries of Model S began in June 2012, roughly two years after the promised 2010 delivery year. Evidence: Tesla Motors Begins Regular Production of 2008 Tesla Roadster; Tesla Motors Delivers World's First Premium Electric Sedan. URLs: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-begins-regular-production-2008-tesla-roadster; https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-delivers-worlds-first-premium-electric-sedan

Calculation rule

Apply strict promise rule or published factual-claim classification.

Evidence strength
68 / 100
Verdict confidence
58 / 100 · Medium-Low
Audit status
Complete
05Score points0

Evidence basis

Score assigned mechanically from verdict and claim type under strict-promise-v1.0: False = 0 points.

Calculation rule

Map verdict mechanically to points under the applicable rule.

Evidence strength
68 / 100
Verdict confidence
58 / 100 · Medium-Low
Audit status
Complete
06Inclusion in the Trust ScoreYes

Evidence basis

Included because the claim has a resolved evidence-based verdict.

Calculation rule

Include only resolved evidence-based verdicts.

Evidence strength
68 / 100
Verdict confidence
58 / 100 · Medium-Low
Audit status
Complete
07Research confidenceMedium-Low

Evidence basis

Evidence strength 68/100 = statement 30/30 + outcome 26/40 + corroboration 0/15 + directness 12/15. Published deductions yield verdict confidence 58/100 (Medium-Low).

Calculation rule

Calculate from evidence components and published deductions.

Evidence strength
68 / 100
Verdict confidence
58 / 100 · Medium-Low
Audit status
Complete
08Credible-source contestationNo

Evidence basis

Credible-source contestation: No. Resolution: No material contestation identified in the cited evidence. Evidence URLs: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-begins-regular-production-2008-tesla-roadster; https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-delivers-worlds-first-premium-electric-sedan

Calculation rule

Record material credible-source disagreement separately from verdict.

Evidence strength
68 / 100
Verdict confidence
58 / 100 · Medium-Low
Audit status
Complete
09Correction statusNo correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row

Evidence basis

Correction status is bounded to the cited record: No correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row. Evidence URLs: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-begins-regular-production-2008-tesla-roadster; https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-delivers-worlds-first-premium-electric-sedan

Calculation rule

Bound correction finding to cited evidence.

Evidence strength
68 / 100
Verdict confidence
58 / 100 · Medium-Low
Audit status
Complete
10Repetition after correctionNot established from the cited evidence

Evidence basis

Repeated after correction: Not established from the cited evidence. Minimum documented repetition count: At least 1 documented instance. Evidence URLs: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-begins-regular-production-2008-tesla-roadster; https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-delivers-worlds-first-premium-electric-sedan

Calculation rule

Bound repetition finding to cited evidence.

Evidence strength
68 / 100
Verdict confidence
58 / 100 · Medium-Low
Audit status
Complete
11Intentional-deception answerNo

Evidence basis

The cited evidence establishes material missing context, framing, delay, or partial delivery, but it does not directly establish Musk’s contemporaneous knowledge or purpose. Misleading outcome and intentional deception are evaluated separately.

Calculation rule

Require direct admission, adjudicated intent finding, or comparably conclusive state-of-mind evidence.

Evidence strength
68 / 100
Verdict confidence
58 / 100 · Medium-Low
Audit status
Complete
12Strict promise resultFail

Evidence basis

Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: False (False — Missed Deadline). Evidence finding: Customer deliveries of Model S began in June 2012, roughly two years after the promised 2010 delivery year. Evidence: Tesla Motors Begins Regular Production of 2008 Tesla Roadster; Tesla Motors Delivers World's First Premium Electric Sedan. URLs: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-begins-regular-production-2008-tesla-roadster; https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-delivers-worlds-first-premium-electric-sedan

Calculation rule

Pass only if every material promise or forecast term was met; otherwise Fail, Pending, Unresolved, or Not applicable.

Evidence strength
68 / 100
Verdict confidence
58 / 100 · Medium-Low
Audit status
Complete

Audit trail

Selection and scoring notes.

v5 classification rationale
Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: False (False — Missed Deadline). Evidence finding: Customer deliveries of Model S began in June 2012, roughly two years after the promised 2010 delivery year. Evidence: Tesla Motors Begins Regular Production of 2008 Tesla Roadster; Tesla Motors Delivers World's First Premium Electric Sedan. URLs: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-begins-regular-production-2008-tesla-roadster; https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-motors-delivers-worlds-first-premium-electric-sedan
v4 → v5 source-package migration audit
Reclassified. verdict: Misleading -> False display: Fulfilled Late -> False — Missed Deadline score: 50 -> 0 Reviewed under strict deadline-and-terms pass/fail rule; later delivery cannot earn partial credit.
Selection basis
High-impact, concrete, externally verifiable claim or dated commitment
Source quality
Primary source and/or major wire, official record, or established fact-checker V4 evidence metrics: statement 30/30; outcome 26/40; corroboration 0/15; directness 12/15.
Methodology note
V5 uses strict-promise-v1.0. Later delivery does not earn partial credit for a missed dated promise. Scored under the v2 Misleading category at 50 points. This verdict measures demonstrated reliability and does not by itself establish deceptive intent.