ELON MUSKTRUST RECORD

Dataset v5Evaluated Jul 26, 2026

Back to evidence index
SPACEX-012April 2024Business & TechnologySpaceXPrediction or Forecast

One million people would live on Mars in about 20 years.

PendingExcluded from scoreMedium confidence

Evidence chain

From statement to verdict.

  1. 01

    Original statement

    One million people would live on Mars in about 20 years.

    April 2024 · Prediction or Forecast

  2. 02

    Measurable target

    Around 2044

    Future target

  3. 03

    Observed outcome

    The target is decades in the future and cannot yet be scored.

    Evaluated Jul 26, 2026

  4. 04

    Verdict and score

    Pending

    Excluded from the 22% calculation. Deadline or relevant condition had not matured by the evaluation date.

Record details

How this row was evaluated.

Subject category
Business & Technology
Organization or context
SpaceX
Relationship to organization
Current affiliation
Assertion mode
Direct statement or documented commitment; exact mode not systematically classified in v2
Deadline result
Future target
Eventual outcome
Pending
Factual accuracy
Not applicable
Strict promise result
Pending
Status rule version
strict-promise-v1.0
Canonical classification
Pending
Score points
Not scored
Included in headline score
No
Exclusion reason
Deadline or relevant condition had not matured by the evaluation date.
Research confidence
Medium
Credible-source contestation
No
Correction status
No correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row
Deleted after challenge
Not established from the cited evidence
Repeated after correction
Not established from the cited evidence
Evidence-documented repetition count
At least 1 documented instance

Intent stays separate

Was intentional deception established?

Not assessable

Detailed assessment
Not assessable
Intent evidence level
Not assessable

Intent is not assessed because the underlying claim is Pending or Unresolved. A state-of-mind conclusion would outrun the available evidence.

“No” does not mean the statement was true. It means the cited evidence did not meet the higher standard needed to establish the speaker's state of mind.

NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit
Why this distinction matters

Evidence strength

A disclosed measure of evidence quality—not a probability.

Component scores measure source quality, corroboration, and directness. Verdict confidence begins with that evidence strength and applies the deductions documented in the methodology.

Evidence strength72of 100
Verdict confidence72Medium
Statement evidence quality26 / 30

Quality and directness of evidence that Musk made the statement.

Outcome evidence quality34 / 40

Quality of evidence establishing the outcome.

Corroboration0 / 15

Independent corroboration across sources and domains.

Directness12 / 15

How directly the evidence resolves the proposition.

Evidence sources
2
Independent source domains
2
Claim audit
Complete
Source audit
Pass

Source fields and evidence metrics populated.

Citations

Read the underlying sources.

Original statement · Tier 1 independent transcriptionNYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goalsOpen source (opens in a new tab)Primary outcome sourceElon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He HitOpen source (opens in a new tab)

Field-level evaluation audit

Every calculated output carries its own evidence basis.

Open any of the 12 audited outputs to see its calculated value, written basis, rule, and cited sources.

01Deadline resultFuture target

Evidence basis

Compared the original target/timeframe (“Around 2044”) with the documented outcome. Result: Future target. Evidence: NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals; Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit. URLs: https://archive.is/c2u4U; https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/06/02/technology/elon-musk-promises-spacex-ipo.html

Calculation rule

Compare original target with documented timing.

Evidence strength
72 / 100
Verdict confidence
72 / 100 · Medium
Audit status
Complete
NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit
02Eventual outcomePending

Evidence basis

Classified the later real-world result independently from the headline verdict. Result: Pending. Documented outcome: The target is decades in the future and cannot yet be scored. Evidence: NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals; Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit. URLs: https://archive.is/c2u4U; https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/06/02/technology/elon-musk-promises-spacex-ipo.html

Calculation rule

Classify the later real-world outcome separately from the headline verdict.

Evidence strength
72 / 100
Verdict confidence
72 / 100 · Medium
Audit status
Complete
NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit
03Factual accuracyNot applicable

Evidence basis

Compared the normalized proposition with the cited records. Result: Not applicable. Documented outcome: The target is decades in the future and cannot yet be scored. Evidence: NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals; Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit. URLs: https://archive.is/c2u4U; https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/06/02/technology/elon-musk-promises-spacex-ipo.html

Calculation rule

Compare the normalized factual proposition with cited evidence.

Evidence strength
72 / 100
Verdict confidence
72 / 100 · Medium
Audit status
Complete
NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit
04Canonical verdictPending

Evidence basis

Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: Pending (Pending). Evidence finding: The target is decades in the future and cannot yet be scored. Evidence: NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals; Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit. URLs: https://archive.is/c2u4U; https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/06/02/technology/elon-musk-promises-spacex-ipo.html

Calculation rule

Apply strict promise rule or published factual-claim classification.

Evidence strength
72 / 100
Verdict confidence
72 / 100 · Medium
Audit status
Complete
NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit
05Score points

Evidence basis

Score assigned mechanically from verdict and claim type under strict-promise-v1.0: Pending = excluded points.

Calculation rule

Map verdict mechanically to points under the applicable rule.

Evidence strength
72 / 100
Verdict confidence
72 / 100 · Medium
Audit status
Complete
NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit
06Inclusion in the Trust ScoreNo

Evidence basis

Excluded because the verdict is Pending: Deadline or relevant condition had not matured by the evaluation date.

Calculation rule

Include only resolved evidence-based verdicts.

Evidence strength
72 / 100
Verdict confidence
72 / 100 · Medium
Audit status
Complete
NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit
07Research confidenceMedium

Evidence basis

Evidence strength 72/100 = statement 26/30 + outcome 34/40 + corroboration 0/15 + directness 12/15. Published deductions yield verdict confidence 72/100 (Medium).

Calculation rule

Calculate from evidence components and published deductions.

Evidence strength
72 / 100
Verdict confidence
72 / 100 · Medium
Audit status
Complete
NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit
08Credible-source contestationNo

Evidence basis

Credible-source contestation: No. Resolution: No material contestation identified in the cited evidence. Evidence URLs: https://archive.is/c2u4U; https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/06/02/technology/elon-musk-promises-spacex-ipo.html

Calculation rule

Record material credible-source disagreement separately from verdict.

Evidence strength
72 / 100
Verdict confidence
72 / 100 · Medium
Audit status
Complete
NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit
09Correction statusNo correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row

Evidence basis

Correction status is bounded to the cited record: No correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row. Evidence URLs: https://archive.is/c2u4U; https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/06/02/technology/elon-musk-promises-spacex-ipo.html

Calculation rule

Bound correction finding to cited evidence.

Evidence strength
72 / 100
Verdict confidence
72 / 100 · Medium
Audit status
Complete
NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit
10Repetition after correctionNot established from the cited evidence

Evidence basis

Repeated after correction: Not established from the cited evidence. Minimum documented repetition count: At least 1 documented instance. Evidence URLs: https://archive.is/c2u4U; https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/06/02/technology/elon-musk-promises-spacex-ipo.html

Calculation rule

Bound repetition finding to cited evidence.

Evidence strength
72 / 100
Verdict confidence
72 / 100 · Medium
Audit status
Complete
NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit
11Intentional-deception answerNot assessable

Evidence basis

Intent is not assessed because the underlying claim is Pending or Unresolved. A state-of-mind conclusion would outrun the available evidence.

Calculation rule

Require direct admission, adjudicated intent finding, or comparably conclusive state-of-mind evidence.

Evidence strength
72 / 100
Verdict confidence
72 / 100 · Medium
Audit status
Complete
NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit
12Strict promise resultPending

Evidence basis

Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: Pending (Pending). Evidence finding: The target is decades in the future and cannot yet be scored. Evidence: NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals; Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit. URLs: https://archive.is/c2u4U; https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/06/02/technology/elon-musk-promises-spacex-ipo.html

Calculation rule

Pass only if every material promise or forecast term was met; otherwise Fail, Pending, Unresolved, or Not applicable.

Evidence strength
72 / 100
Verdict confidence
72 / 100 · Medium
Audit status
Complete
NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit

Audit trail

Selection and scoring notes.

v5 classification rationale
Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: Pending (Pending). Evidence finding: The target is decades in the future and cannot yet be scored. Evidence: NYT audit transcript of Musk's Mars goals; Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Goals. We Counted How Many He Hit. URLs: https://archive.is/c2u4U; https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/06/02/technology/elon-musk-promises-spacex-ipo.html
v4 → v5 source-package migration audit
Reclassified. Reviewed under strict deadline-and-terms pass/fail rule; later delivery cannot earn partial credit.
Selection basis
High-impact, concrete, externally verifiable claim or dated commitment
Source quality
Primary source and/or major wire, official record, or established fact-checker V4 evidence metrics: statement 26/30; outcome 34/40; corroboration 0/15; directness 12/15.
Methodology note
V5 uses strict-promise-v1.0. Later delivery does not earn partial credit for a missed dated promise. Excluded from the v2 Trust Score as Pending: Deadline or relevant condition had not matured by the evaluation date.