Build a new Starship and booster every month by the end of 2022.
Evidence chain
From statement to verdict.
- 01
Original statement
Build a new Starship and booster every month by the end of 2022.
Feb 10, 2022 · Prediction or Forecast
- 02
Measurable target
2022-12-31
Missed
- 03
Observed outcome
In September 2022 Musk said full-stack production was roughly one every two months, half the promised one-per-month cadence, and the year ended without evidence that the target was reached.
Evaluated Jul 26, 2026
- 04
Verdict and score
False — Missed Deadline
0 of 100 points under the v5 rubric. Promise/forecast verdict: At least one matured material term failed, including a deadline miss, incomplete scope, reversal, or incorrect forecast. Factual verdict: Reliable evidence contradicts the central proposition.
Record details
How this row was evaluated.
- Subject category
- Business & Technology
- Organization or context
- SpaceX
- Relationship to organization
- Current affiliation
- Assertion mode
- Direct statement or documented commitment; exact mode not systematically classified in v2
- Deadline result
- Missed
- Eventual outcome
- Target production cadence not reached by year-end
- Factual accuracy
- Not applicable
- Strict promise result
- Fail
- Status rule version
- strict-promise-v1.0
- Canonical classification
- False
- Score points
- 0 / 100
- Included in headline score
- Yes
- Research confidence
- Medium-High
- Credible-source contestation
- No
- Correction status
- No correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row
- Deleted after challenge
- Not established from the cited evidence
- Repeated after correction
- Not established from the cited evidence
- Evidence-documented repetition count
- At least 1 documented instance
Intent stays separate
Was intentional deception established?
No
- Detailed assessment
- Not established
- Intent evidence level
- 0 / 3
Intent is not assessed because the underlying claim is Pending or Unresolved. The evidence does not first establish a settled inaccurate outcome from which a state-of-mind inquiry could responsibly proceed.
“No” does not mean the statement was true. It means the cited evidence did not meet the higher standard needed to establish the speaker's state of mind.
Why this distinction mattersEvidence strength
A disclosed measure of evidence quality—not a probability.
Component scores measure source quality, corroboration, and directness. Verdict confidence begins with that evidence strength and applies the deductions documented in the methodology.
Quality and directness of evidence that Musk made the statement.
Quality of evidence establishing the outcome.
Independent corroboration across sources and domains.
How directly the evidence resolves the proposition.
- Evidence sources
- 3
- Independent source domains
- 3
- Claim audit
- Complete
- Source audit
- Pass
Source fields and evidence metrics populated.
Citations
Read the underlying sources.
Field-level evaluation audit
Every calculated output carries its own evidence basis.
Open any of the 12 audited outputs to see its calculated value, written basis, rule, and cited sources.
01Deadline resultMissed
Evidence basis
Compared the original target/timeframe (“2022-12-31”) with the documented outcome. Result: Missed. Evidence: Musk highly confident Starship will reach orbit this year; Musk says full-stack production was roughly one every two months in September 2022; Starship Booster 7 testing status in November 2022. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/spacex-chief-elon-musk-highly-confident-his-starship-will-reach-orbit-this-year-2022-02-11/; https://teslanorth.com/2022/09/22/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-highly-likely-in-november-says-musk/; https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/11/b7-resumes-static-fire/
Calculation rule
Compare original target with documented timing.
- Evidence strength
- 76 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 76 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
02Eventual outcomeTarget production cadence not reached by year-end
Evidence basis
Classified the later real-world result independently from the headline verdict. Result: Target production cadence not reached by year-end. Documented outcome: In September 2022 Musk said full-stack production was roughly one every two months, half the promised one-per-month cadence, and the year ended without evidence that the target was reached. Evidence: Musk highly confident Starship will reach orbit this year; Musk says full-stack production was roughly one every two months in September 2022; Starship Booster 7 testing status in November 2022. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/spacex-chief-elon-musk-highly-confident-his-starship-will-reach-orbit-this-year-2022-02-11/; https://teslanorth.com/2022/09/22/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-highly-likely-in-november-says-musk/; https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/11/b7-resumes-static-fire/
Calculation rule
Classify the later real-world outcome separately from the headline verdict.
- Evidence strength
- 76 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 76 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
03Factual accuracyNot applicable
Evidence basis
Compared the normalized proposition with the cited records. Result: Not applicable. Documented outcome: In September 2022 Musk said full-stack production was roughly one every two months, half the promised one-per-month cadence, and the year ended without evidence that the target was reached. Evidence: Musk highly confident Starship will reach orbit this year; Musk says full-stack production was roughly one every two months in September 2022; Starship Booster 7 testing status in November 2022. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/spacex-chief-elon-musk-highly-confident-his-starship-will-reach-orbit-this-year-2022-02-11/; https://teslanorth.com/2022/09/22/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-highly-likely-in-november-says-musk/; https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/11/b7-resumes-static-fire/
Calculation rule
Compare the normalized factual proposition with cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 76 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 76 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
04Canonical verdictFalse
Evidence basis
Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: False (False — Missed Deadline). Evidence finding: In September 2022 Musk said full-stack production was roughly one every two months, half the promised one-per-month cadence, and the year ended without evidence that the target was reached. Evidence: Musk highly confident Starship will reach orbit this year; Musk says full-stack production was roughly one every two months in September 2022; Starship Booster 7 testing status in November 2022. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/spacex-chief-elon-musk-highly-confident-his-starship-will-reach-orbit-this-year-2022-02-11/; https://teslanorth.com/2022/09/22/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-highly-likely-in-november-says-musk/; https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/11/b7-resumes-static-fire/
Calculation rule
Apply strict promise rule or published factual-claim classification.
- Evidence strength
- 76 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 76 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
05Score points0
Evidence basis
Score assigned mechanically from verdict and claim type under strict-promise-v1.0: False = 0 points.
Calculation rule
Map verdict mechanically to points under the applicable rule.
- Evidence strength
- 76 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 76 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
06Inclusion in the Trust ScoreYes
Evidence basis
Included because the claim has a resolved evidence-based verdict.
Calculation rule
Include only resolved evidence-based verdicts.
- Evidence strength
- 76 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 76 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
07Research confidenceMedium-High
Evidence basis
Evidence strength 76/100 = statement 26/30 + outcome 30/40 + corroboration 8/15 + directness 12/15. Published deductions yield verdict confidence 76/100 (Medium-High).
Calculation rule
Calculate from evidence components and published deductions.
- Evidence strength
- 76 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 76 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
08Credible-source contestationNo
Evidence basis
Credible-source contestation: No. Resolution: No material contestation identified in the cited evidence. Evidence URLs: https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/spacex-chief-elon-musk-highly-confident-his-starship-will-reach-orbit-this-year-2022-02-11/; https://teslanorth.com/2022/09/22/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-highly-likely-in-november-says-musk/; https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/11/b7-resumes-static-fire/
Calculation rule
Record material credible-source disagreement separately from verdict.
- Evidence strength
- 76 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 76 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
09Correction statusNo correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row
Evidence basis
Correction status is bounded to the cited record: No correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row. Evidence URLs: https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/spacex-chief-elon-musk-highly-confident-his-starship-will-reach-orbit-this-year-2022-02-11/; https://teslanorth.com/2022/09/22/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-highly-likely-in-november-says-musk/; https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/11/b7-resumes-static-fire/
Calculation rule
Bound correction finding to cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 76 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 76 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
10Repetition after correctionNot established from the cited evidence
Evidence basis
Repeated after correction: Not established from the cited evidence. Minimum documented repetition count: At least 1 documented instance. Evidence URLs: https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/spacex-chief-elon-musk-highly-confident-his-starship-will-reach-orbit-this-year-2022-02-11/; https://teslanorth.com/2022/09/22/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-highly-likely-in-november-says-musk/; https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/11/b7-resumes-static-fire/
Calculation rule
Bound repetition finding to cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 76 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 76 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
11Intentional-deception answerNo
Evidence basis
Intent is not assessed because the underlying claim is Pending or Unresolved. The evidence does not first establish a settled inaccurate outcome from which a state-of-mind inquiry could responsibly proceed.
Calculation rule
Require direct admission, adjudicated intent finding, or comparably conclusive state-of-mind evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 76 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 76 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
12Strict promise resultFail
Evidence basis
Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: False (False — Missed Deadline). Evidence finding: In September 2022 Musk said full-stack production was roughly one every two months, half the promised one-per-month cadence, and the year ended without evidence that the target was reached. Evidence: Musk highly confident Starship will reach orbit this year; Musk says full-stack production was roughly one every two months in September 2022; Starship Booster 7 testing status in November 2022. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/spacex-chief-elon-musk-highly-confident-his-starship-will-reach-orbit-this-year-2022-02-11/; https://teslanorth.com/2022/09/22/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-highly-likely-in-november-says-musk/; https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/11/b7-resumes-static-fire/
Calculation rule
Pass only if every material promise or forecast term was met; otherwise Fail, Pending, Unresolved, or Not applicable.
- Evidence strength
- 76 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 76 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
Audit trail
Selection and scoring notes.
- v5 classification rationale
- Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: False (False — Missed Deadline). Evidence finding: In September 2022 Musk said full-stack production was roughly one every two months, half the promised one-per-month cadence, and the year ended without evidence that the target was reached. Evidence: Musk highly confident Starship will reach orbit this year; Musk says full-stack production was roughly one every two months in September 2022; Starship Booster 7 testing status in November 2022. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/spacex-chief-elon-musk-highly-confident-his-starship-will-reach-orbit-this-year-2022-02-11/; https://teslanorth.com/2022/09/22/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-highly-likely-in-november-says-musk/; https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/11/b7-resumes-static-fire/
- v4 → v5 source-package migration audit
- Reclassified. verdict: Unresolved -> False display: Unresolved -> False — Missed Deadline score: -> 0 inclusion: No -> Yes Reviewed under strict deadline-and-terms pass/fail rule; later delivery cannot earn partial credit.
- Selection basis
- High-impact, concrete, externally verifiable claim or dated commitment
- Source quality
- Primary source and/or major wire, official record, or established fact-checker V4 evidence metrics: statement 26/30; outcome 34/40; corroboration 0/15; directness 8/15.
- Methodology note
- V5 uses strict-promise-v1.0. Later delivery does not earn partial credit for a missed dated promise. Excluded from the v2 Trust Score as Unresolved: Public manufacturing data are insufficient to verify the claimed complete Starship-and-booster monthly cadence.