Represented America PAC’s daily $1 million voter awards as random prizes to petition signers.
Evidence chain
From statement to verdict.
- 01
Original statement
Represented America PAC’s daily $1 million voter awards as random prizes to petition signers.
Oct 19, 2024 · Factual Assertion
- 02
Measurable target
Present-tense or retrospective claim
Not applicable
- 03
Observed outcome
In court, counsel for America PAC said recipients were selected and vetted as paid spokespeople, not chosen randomly as the promotion had implied.
Evaluated Jul 26, 2026
- 04
Verdict and score
False
0 of 100 points under the v5 rubric. Promise/forecast verdict: At least one matured material term failed, including a deadline miss, incomplete scope, reversal, or incorrect forecast. Factual verdict: Reliable evidence contradicts the central proposition.
Record details
How this row was evaluated.
- Subject category
- Politics & Government
- Topic category
- Politics & Elections
- Organization or context
- Public discourse
- Relationship to organization
- Public sphere
- Assertion mode
- Public event statement and promotion
- Deadline result
- Not applicable
- Eventual outcome
- Not applicable
- Factual accuracy
- False
- Canonical classification
- False
- Score points
- 0 / 100
- Included in headline score
- Yes
- Research confidence
- Medium
- Credible-source contestation
- Yes
- Contestation resolution
- The PAC’s own lawyer directly contradicted the random-selection representation.
- Correction status
- No clear public correction identified after the court disclosure
- Deleted after challenge
- No
- Repeated after correction
- No
- Evidence-documented repetition count
- 1
- Sensitive-topic metadata
- Politics · Elections
Topic tags are descriptive metadata and do not independently determine the verdict or score.
Intent stays separate
Was intentional deception established?
No
- Detailed assessment
- Suggested but not established
- Intent evidence level
- 1 / 3
America PAC counsel later said the recipients were selected and vetted rather than randomly chosen. The implementation conflicts with the public representation, but the cited record does not independently establish Musk’s personal state of mind when he promoted it.
“No” does not mean the statement was true. It means the cited evidence did not meet the higher standard needed to establish the speaker's state of mind.
Why this distinction mattersEvidence strength
A disclosed measure of evidence quality—not a probability.
Component scores measure source quality, corroboration, and directness. Verdict confidence begins with that evidence strength and applies the deductions documented in the methodology.
Quality and directness of evidence that Musk made the statement.
Quality of evidence establishing the outcome.
Independent corroboration across sources and domains.
How directly the evidence resolves the proposition.
- Evidence sources
- 1
- Independent source domains
- 1
- Claim audit
- Complete
- Source audit
- Pass
Material contestation is documented and resolved or left Unresolved in the row.
Citations
Read the underlying sources.
Field-level evaluation audit
Every calculated output carries its own evidence basis.
Open any of the 12 audited outputs to see its calculated value, written basis, rule, and cited sources.
01Deadline resultNot applicable
Evidence basis
Compared the original target/timeframe (“Present-tense or retrospective claim”) with the documented outcome. Result: Not applicable. Evidence: Elon Musk’s $1 million-a-day voter sweepstakes can proceed. URLs: https://apnews.com/article/musk-million-sweepstakes-lottery-pennsylvania-krasner-4f683c48eb7dcc57f183e54ef16e7320
Calculation rule
Compare original target with documented timing.
- Evidence strength
- 75 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 69 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
02Eventual outcomeNot applicable
Evidence basis
Classified the later real-world result independently from the headline verdict. Result: Not applicable. Documented outcome: In court, counsel for America PAC said recipients were selected and vetted as paid spokespeople, not chosen randomly as the promotion had implied. Evidence: Elon Musk’s $1 million-a-day voter sweepstakes can proceed. URLs: https://apnews.com/article/musk-million-sweepstakes-lottery-pennsylvania-krasner-4f683c48eb7dcc57f183e54ef16e7320
Calculation rule
Classify the later real-world outcome separately from the headline verdict.
- Evidence strength
- 75 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 69 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
03Factual accuracyFalse
Evidence basis
Compared the normalized proposition with the cited records. Result: False. Documented outcome: In court, counsel for America PAC said recipients were selected and vetted as paid spokespeople, not chosen randomly as the promotion had implied. Evidence: Elon Musk’s $1 million-a-day voter sweepstakes can proceed. URLs: https://apnews.com/article/musk-million-sweepstakes-lottery-pennsylvania-krasner-4f683c48eb7dcc57f183e54ef16e7320
Calculation rule
Compare the normalized factual proposition with cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 75 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 69 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
04Canonical verdictFalse
Evidence basis
Factual-claim rule: apply the published True, Mostly True, Misleading, Unsupported, False, or Unresolved definition. Applied result: False (False). Evidence finding: In court, counsel for America PAC said recipients were selected and vetted as paid spokespeople, not chosen randomly as the promotion had implied. Evidence: Elon Musk’s $1 million-a-day voter sweepstakes can proceed. URLs: https://apnews.com/article/musk-million-sweepstakes-lottery-pennsylvania-krasner-4f683c48eb7dcc57f183e54ef16e7320
Calculation rule
Apply strict promise rule or published factual-claim classification.
- Evidence strength
- 75 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 69 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
05Score points0
Evidence basis
Score assigned mechanically from verdict and claim type under strict-promise-v1.0: False = 0 points.
Calculation rule
Map verdict mechanically to points under the applicable rule.
- Evidence strength
- 75 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 69 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
06Inclusion in the Trust ScoreYes
Evidence basis
Included because the claim has a resolved evidence-based verdict.
Calculation rule
Include only resolved evidence-based verdicts.
- Evidence strength
- 75 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 69 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
07Research confidenceMedium
Evidence basis
Evidence strength 75/100 = statement 26/30 + outcome 34/40 + corroboration 0/15 + directness 15/15. Published deductions yield verdict confidence 69/100 (Medium).
Calculation rule
Calculate from evidence components and published deductions.
- Evidence strength
- 75 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 69 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
08Credible-source contestationYes
Evidence basis
Credible-source contestation: Yes. Resolution: The PAC’s own lawyer directly contradicted the random-selection representation. Evidence URLs: https://apnews.com/article/musk-million-sweepstakes-lottery-pennsylvania-krasner-4f683c48eb7dcc57f183e54ef16e7320
Calculation rule
Record material credible-source disagreement separately from verdict.
- Evidence strength
- 75 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 69 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
09Correction statusNo clear public correction identified after the court disclosure
Evidence basis
Correction status is bounded to the cited record: No clear public correction identified after the court disclosure. Evidence URLs: https://apnews.com/article/musk-million-sweepstakes-lottery-pennsylvania-krasner-4f683c48eb7dcc57f183e54ef16e7320
Calculation rule
Bound correction finding to cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 75 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 69 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
10Repetition after correctionNo
Evidence basis
Repeated after correction: No. Minimum documented repetition count: 1. Evidence URLs: https://apnews.com/article/musk-million-sweepstakes-lottery-pennsylvania-krasner-4f683c48eb7dcc57f183e54ef16e7320
Calculation rule
Bound repetition finding to cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 75 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 69 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
11Intentional-deception answerNo
Evidence basis
America PAC counsel later said the recipients were selected and vetted rather than randomly chosen. The implementation conflicts with the public representation, but the cited record does not independently establish Musk’s personal state of mind when he promoted it.
Calculation rule
Require direct admission, adjudicated intent finding, or comparably conclusive state-of-mind evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 75 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 69 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
12Strict promise resultNot applicable
Evidence basis
Factual-claim rule: apply the published True, Mostly True, Misleading, Unsupported, False, or Unresolved definition. Applied result: False (False). Evidence finding: In court, counsel for America PAC said recipients were selected and vetted as paid spokespeople, not chosen randomly as the promotion had implied. Evidence: Elon Musk’s $1 million-a-day voter sweepstakes can proceed. URLs: https://apnews.com/article/musk-million-sweepstakes-lottery-pennsylvania-krasner-4f683c48eb7dcc57f183e54ef16e7320
Calculation rule
Pass only if every material promise or forecast term was met; otherwise Fail, Pending, Unresolved, or Not applicable.
- Evidence strength
- 75 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 69 / 100 · Medium
- Audit status
- Complete
Audit trail
Selection and scoring notes.
- v5 classification rationale
- Factual-claim rule: apply the published True, Mostly True, Misleading, Unsupported, False, or Unresolved definition. Applied result: False (False). Evidence finding: In court, counsel for America PAC said recipients were selected and vetted as paid spokespeople, not chosen randomly as the promotion had implied. Evidence: Elon Musk’s $1 million-a-day voter sweepstakes can proceed. URLs: https://apnews.com/article/musk-million-sweepstakes-lottery-pennsylvania-krasner-4f683c48eb7dcc57f183e54ef16e7320
- v4 → v5 source-package migration audit
- Audited, no headline change. Evidence and derived statistics re-audited.
- Selection basis
- Material v3 expansion claim selected under published inclusion rules
- Source quality
- Original statement or strong reporting paired with a major wire, official record, court filing, or established fact-checker V4 evidence metrics: statement 26/30; outcome 34/40; corroboration 0/15; directness 15/15.
- Methodology note
- V5 uses strict-promise-v1.0. Later delivery does not earn partial credit for a missed dated promise. Scored under the v3 False category at 0 points. This rating measures demonstrated reliability and does not by itself establish deceptive intent.