Said he would pay more than $11 billion in taxes for 2021.
Evidence chain
From statement to verdict.
- 01
Original statement
Said he would pay more than $11 billion in taxes for 2021.
Dec 19, 2021 · Factual Assertion
- 02
Measurable target
Present-tense or retrospective claim
Not applicable
- 03
Observed outcome
Contemporaneous estimates placed his federal liability around $10.7 billion, with state taxes capable of pushing the total above $11 billion. His private return is unavailable, preventing exact independent confirmation.
Evaluated Jul 26, 2026
- 04
Verdict and score
Mostly True
75 of 100 points under the v5 rubric. The core proposition is accurate but has a meaningful nonfatal qualification.
Record details
How this row was evaluated.
- Subject category
- Personal & Legal
- Topic category
- Personal & Biographical
- Organization or context
- Public discourse
- Relationship to organization
- Public sphere
- Assertion mode
- Direct social-media statement
- Deadline result
- Not applicable
- Eventual outcome
- Not applicable
- Factual accuracy
- Mostly True
- Canonical classification
- Mostly True
- Score points
- 75 / 100
- Included in headline score
- Yes
- Research confidence
- Medium-High
- Credible-source contestation
- No
- Correction status
- No public correction identified
- Deleted after challenge
- No
- Repeated after correction
- No
- Evidence-documented repetition count
- 1
- Sensitive-topic metadata
- Personal biography
Topic tags are descriptive metadata and do not independently determine the verdict or score.
Intent stays separate
Was intentional deception established?
No
- Detailed assessment
- Not established
- Intent evidence level
- 0 / 3
The cited evidence supports the central claim with qualifications. The documented imprecision or omitted context does not establish a knowing intent to deceive.
“No” does not mean the statement was true. It means the cited evidence did not meet the higher standard needed to establish the speaker's state of mind.
Evidence strength
A disclosed measure of evidence quality—not a probability.
Component scores measure source quality, corroboration, and directness. Verdict confidence begins with that evidence strength and applies the deductions documented in the methodology.
Quality and directness of evidence that Musk made the statement.
Quality of evidence establishing the outcome.
Independent corroboration across sources and domains.
How directly the evidence resolves the proposition.
- Evidence sources
- 2
- Independent source domains
- 1
- Claim audit
- Complete
- Source audit
- Pass
Source fields and evidence metrics populated.
Citations
Read the underlying sources.
Field-level evaluation audit
Every calculated output carries its own evidence basis.
Open any of the 12 audited outputs to see its calculated value, written basis, rule, and cited sources.
01Deadline resultNot applicable
Evidence basis
Compared the original target/timeframe (“Present-tense or retrospective claim”) with the documented outcome. Result: Not applicable. Evidence: Tesla's Musk says he will pay over $11 billion in taxes this year; Musk completes option-related Tesla stock sales plan, filings show. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/teslas-musk-says-he-will-pay-over-11-bln-taxes-this-year-2021-12-20/; https://www.reuters.com/business/teslas-musk-completes-option-related-sales-plan-filing-2021-12-29/
Calculation rule
Compare original target with documented timing.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 75 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
02Eventual outcomeNot applicable
Evidence basis
Classified the later real-world result independently from the headline verdict. Result: Not applicable. Documented outcome: Contemporaneous estimates placed his federal liability around $10.7 billion, with state taxes capable of pushing the total above $11 billion. His private return is unavailable, preventing exact independent confirmation. Evidence: Tesla's Musk says he will pay over $11 billion in taxes this year; Musk completes option-related Tesla stock sales plan, filings show. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/teslas-musk-says-he-will-pay-over-11-bln-taxes-this-year-2021-12-20/; https://www.reuters.com/business/teslas-musk-completes-option-related-sales-plan-filing-2021-12-29/
Calculation rule
Classify the later real-world outcome separately from the headline verdict.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 75 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
03Factual accuracyMostly True
Evidence basis
Compared the normalized proposition with the cited records. Result: Mostly True. Documented outcome: Contemporaneous estimates placed his federal liability around $10.7 billion, with state taxes capable of pushing the total above $11 billion. His private return is unavailable, preventing exact independent confirmation. Evidence: Tesla's Musk says he will pay over $11 billion in taxes this year; Musk completes option-related Tesla stock sales plan, filings show. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/teslas-musk-says-he-will-pay-over-11-bln-taxes-this-year-2021-12-20/; https://www.reuters.com/business/teslas-musk-completes-option-related-sales-plan-filing-2021-12-29/
Calculation rule
Compare the normalized factual proposition with cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 75 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
04Canonical verdictMostly True
Evidence basis
Factual-claim rule: apply the published True, Mostly True, Misleading, Unsupported, False, or Unresolved definition. Applied result: Mostly True (Mostly True). Evidence finding: Contemporaneous estimates placed his federal liability around $10.7 billion, with state taxes capable of pushing the total above $11 billion. His private return is unavailable, preventing exact independent confirmation. Evidence: Tesla's Musk says he will pay over $11 billion in taxes this year; Musk completes option-related Tesla stock sales plan, filings show. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/teslas-musk-says-he-will-pay-over-11-bln-taxes-this-year-2021-12-20/; https://www.reuters.com/business/teslas-musk-completes-option-related-sales-plan-filing-2021-12-29/
Calculation rule
Apply strict promise rule or published factual-claim classification.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 75 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
05Score points75
Evidence basis
Score assigned mechanically from verdict and claim type under strict-promise-v1.0: Mostly True = 75 points.
Calculation rule
Map verdict mechanically to points under the applicable rule.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 75 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
06Inclusion in the Trust ScoreYes
Evidence basis
Included because the claim has a resolved evidence-based verdict.
Calculation rule
Include only resolved evidence-based verdicts.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 75 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
07Research confidenceMedium-High
Evidence basis
Evidence strength 80/100 = statement 26/30 + outcome 34/40 + corroboration 8/15 + directness 12/15. Published deductions yield verdict confidence 75/100 (Medium-High).
Calculation rule
Calculate from evidence components and published deductions.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 75 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
08Credible-source contestationNo
Evidence basis
Credible-source contestation: No. Resolution: No material contestation identified in the cited evidence. Evidence URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/teslas-musk-says-he-will-pay-over-11-bln-taxes-this-year-2021-12-20/; https://www.reuters.com/business/teslas-musk-completes-option-related-sales-plan-filing-2021-12-29/
Calculation rule
Record material credible-source disagreement separately from verdict.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 75 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
09Correction statusNo public correction identified
Evidence basis
Correction status is bounded to the cited record: No public correction identified. Evidence URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/teslas-musk-says-he-will-pay-over-11-bln-taxes-this-year-2021-12-20/; https://www.reuters.com/business/teslas-musk-completes-option-related-sales-plan-filing-2021-12-29/
Calculation rule
Bound correction finding to cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 75 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
10Repetition after correctionNo
Evidence basis
Repeated after correction: No. Minimum documented repetition count: 1. Evidence URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/teslas-musk-says-he-will-pay-over-11-bln-taxes-this-year-2021-12-20/; https://www.reuters.com/business/teslas-musk-completes-option-related-sales-plan-filing-2021-12-29/
Calculation rule
Bound repetition finding to cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 75 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
11Intentional-deception answerNo
Evidence basis
The cited evidence supports the central claim with qualifications. The documented imprecision or omitted context does not establish a knowing intent to deceive.
Calculation rule
Require direct admission, adjudicated intent finding, or comparably conclusive state-of-mind evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 75 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
12Strict promise resultNot applicable
Evidence basis
Factual-claim rule: apply the published True, Mostly True, Misleading, Unsupported, False, or Unresolved definition. Applied result: Mostly True (Mostly True). Evidence finding: Contemporaneous estimates placed his federal liability around $10.7 billion, with state taxes capable of pushing the total above $11 billion. His private return is unavailable, preventing exact independent confirmation. Evidence: Tesla's Musk says he will pay over $11 billion in taxes this year; Musk completes option-related Tesla stock sales plan, filings show. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/teslas-musk-says-he-will-pay-over-11-bln-taxes-this-year-2021-12-20/; https://www.reuters.com/business/teslas-musk-completes-option-related-sales-plan-filing-2021-12-29/
Calculation rule
Pass only if every material promise or forecast term was met; otherwise Fail, Pending, Unresolved, or Not applicable.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 75 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
Audit trail
Selection and scoring notes.
- v5 classification rationale
- Factual-claim rule: apply the published True, Mostly True, Misleading, Unsupported, False, or Unresolved definition. Applied result: Mostly True (Mostly True). Evidence finding: Contemporaneous estimates placed his federal liability around $10.7 billion, with state taxes capable of pushing the total above $11 billion. His private return is unavailable, preventing exact independent confirmation. Evidence: Tesla's Musk says he will pay over $11 billion in taxes this year; Musk completes option-related Tesla stock sales plan, filings show. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/teslas-musk-says-he-will-pay-over-11-bln-taxes-this-year-2021-12-20/; https://www.reuters.com/business/teslas-musk-completes-option-related-sales-plan-filing-2021-12-29/
- v4 → v5 source-package migration audit
- Audited, no headline change. Evidence and derived statistics re-audited.
- Selection basis
- Material v3 expansion claim selected under published inclusion rules
- Source quality
- Original statement or strong reporting paired with a major wire, official record, court filing, or established fact-checker V4 evidence metrics: statement 26/30; outcome 34/40; corroboration 8/15; directness 12/15.
- Methodology note
- V5 uses strict-promise-v1.0. Later delivery does not earn partial credit for a missed dated promise. Scored under the v3 Mostly True category at 75 points. This rating measures demonstrated reliability and does not by itself establish deceptive intent.