Begin initial human trials later in 2021 if safety work and FDA discussions went well.
Evidence chain
From statement to verdict.
- 01
Original statement
Begin initial human trials later in 2021 if safety work and FDA discussions went well.
February 2021 · Prediction or Forecast
- 02
Measurable target
2021-12-31
More than two years late
- 03
Observed outcome
Neuralink did not begin its first human implant trial until 2024.
Evaluated Jul 26, 2026
- 04
Verdict and score
False — Missed Deadline
0 of 100 points under the v5 rubric. Promise/forecast verdict: At least one matured material term failed, including a deadline miss, incomplete scope, reversal, or incorrect forecast. Factual verdict: Reliable evidence contradicts the central proposition.
Record details
How this row was evaluated.
- Subject category
- Science & Health
- Organization or context
- Neuralink
- Relationship to organization
- Current affiliation
- Assertion mode
- Direct statement or documented commitment; exact mode not systematically classified in v2
- Deadline result
- More than two years late
- Eventual outcome
- Partially fulfilled or materially late
- Factual accuracy
- Not applicable
- Strict promise result
- Fail
- Status rule version
- strict-promise-v1.0
- Canonical classification
- False
- Score points
- 0 / 100
- Included in headline score
- Yes
- Research confidence
- Medium-High
- Credible-source contestation
- No
- Correction status
- No correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row
- Deleted after challenge
- Not established from the cited evidence
- Repeated after correction
- Not established from the cited evidence
- Evidence-documented repetition count
- At least 1 documented instance
Later-delivery context: Later outcome retained for context: Neuralink did not begin its first human implant trial until 2024. Under strict-promise-v1.0, later delivery does not satisfy the original deadline or restore points.
Intent stays separate
Was intentional deception established?
No
- Detailed assessment
- Not established
- Intent evidence level
- 0 / 3
The cited evidence establishes material missing context, framing, delay, or partial delivery, but it does not directly establish Musk’s contemporaneous knowledge or purpose. Misleading outcome and intentional deception are evaluated separately.
“No” does not mean the statement was true. It means the cited evidence did not meet the higher standard needed to establish the speaker's state of mind.
Evidence strength
A disclosed measure of evidence quality—not a probability.
Component scores measure source quality, corroboration, and directness. Verdict confidence begins with that evidence strength and applies the deductions documented in the methodology.
Quality and directness of evidence that Musk made the statement.
Quality of evidence establishing the outcome.
Independent corroboration across sources and domains.
How directly the evidence resolves the proposition.
- Evidence sources
- 3
- Independent source domains
- 1
- Claim audit
- Complete
- Source audit
- Pass
Source fields and evidence metrics populated.
Citations
Read the underlying sources.
Field-level evaluation audit
Every calculated output carries its own evidence basis.
Open any of the 12 audited outputs to see its calculated value, written basis, rule, and cited sources.
01Deadline resultMore than two years late
Evidence basis
Compared the original target/timeframe (“2021-12-31”) with the documented outcome. Result: More than two years late. Evidence: Musk's missed Neuralink FDA deadlines; Neuralink implants brain chip in first human; Neuralink reports 21 trial participants in 2026. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musks-missed-deadlines-fda-approval-neuralink-brain-chip-trials-2023-03-02/; https://www.reuters.com/technology/neuralink-implants-brain-chip-first-human-musk-says-2024-01-29/; https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/elon-musks-neuralink-says-it-has-21-participants-enrolled-trials-2026-01-28/
Calculation rule
Compare original target with documented timing.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 80 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
02Eventual outcomePartially fulfilled or materially late
Evidence basis
Classified the later real-world result independently from the headline verdict. Result: Partially fulfilled or materially late. Documented outcome: Neuralink did not begin its first human implant trial until 2024. Evidence: Musk's missed Neuralink FDA deadlines; Neuralink implants brain chip in first human; Neuralink reports 21 trial participants in 2026. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musks-missed-deadlines-fda-approval-neuralink-brain-chip-trials-2023-03-02/; https://www.reuters.com/technology/neuralink-implants-brain-chip-first-human-musk-says-2024-01-29/; https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/elon-musks-neuralink-says-it-has-21-participants-enrolled-trials-2026-01-28/
Calculation rule
Classify the later real-world outcome separately from the headline verdict.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 80 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
03Factual accuracyNot applicable
Evidence basis
Compared the normalized proposition with the cited records. Result: Not applicable. Documented outcome: Neuralink did not begin its first human implant trial until 2024. Evidence: Musk's missed Neuralink FDA deadlines; Neuralink implants brain chip in first human; Neuralink reports 21 trial participants in 2026. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musks-missed-deadlines-fda-approval-neuralink-brain-chip-trials-2023-03-02/; https://www.reuters.com/technology/neuralink-implants-brain-chip-first-human-musk-says-2024-01-29/; https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/elon-musks-neuralink-says-it-has-21-participants-enrolled-trials-2026-01-28/
Calculation rule
Compare the normalized factual proposition with cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 80 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
04Canonical verdictFalse
Evidence basis
Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: False (False — Missed Deadline). Evidence finding: Neuralink did not begin its first human implant trial until 2024. Evidence: Musk's missed Neuralink FDA deadlines; Neuralink implants brain chip in first human; Neuralink reports 21 trial participants in 2026. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musks-missed-deadlines-fda-approval-neuralink-brain-chip-trials-2023-03-02/; https://www.reuters.com/technology/neuralink-implants-brain-chip-first-human-musk-says-2024-01-29/; https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/elon-musks-neuralink-says-it-has-21-participants-enrolled-trials-2026-01-28/
Calculation rule
Apply strict promise rule or published factual-claim classification.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 80 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
05Score points0
Evidence basis
Score assigned mechanically from verdict and claim type under strict-promise-v1.0: False = 0 points.
Calculation rule
Map verdict mechanically to points under the applicable rule.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 80 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
06Inclusion in the Trust ScoreYes
Evidence basis
Included because the claim has a resolved evidence-based verdict.
Calculation rule
Include only resolved evidence-based verdicts.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 80 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
07Research confidenceMedium-High
Evidence basis
Evidence strength 80/100 = statement 26/30 + outcome 34/40 + corroboration 8/15 + directness 12/15. Published deductions yield verdict confidence 80/100 (Medium-High).
Calculation rule
Calculate from evidence components and published deductions.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 80 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
08Credible-source contestationNo
Evidence basis
Credible-source contestation: No. Resolution: No material contestation identified in the cited evidence. Evidence URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musks-missed-deadlines-fda-approval-neuralink-brain-chip-trials-2023-03-02/; https://www.reuters.com/technology/neuralink-implants-brain-chip-first-human-musk-says-2024-01-29/; https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/elon-musks-neuralink-says-it-has-21-participants-enrolled-trials-2026-01-28/
Calculation rule
Record material credible-source disagreement separately from verdict.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 80 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
09Correction statusNo correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row
Evidence basis
Correction status is bounded to the cited record: No correction documented in the cited evidence reviewed for this row. Evidence URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musks-missed-deadlines-fda-approval-neuralink-brain-chip-trials-2023-03-02/; https://www.reuters.com/technology/neuralink-implants-brain-chip-first-human-musk-says-2024-01-29/; https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/elon-musks-neuralink-says-it-has-21-participants-enrolled-trials-2026-01-28/
Calculation rule
Bound correction finding to cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 80 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
10Repetition after correctionNot established from the cited evidence
Evidence basis
Repeated after correction: Not established from the cited evidence. Minimum documented repetition count: At least 1 documented instance. Evidence URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musks-missed-deadlines-fda-approval-neuralink-brain-chip-trials-2023-03-02/; https://www.reuters.com/technology/neuralink-implants-brain-chip-first-human-musk-says-2024-01-29/; https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/elon-musks-neuralink-says-it-has-21-participants-enrolled-trials-2026-01-28/
Calculation rule
Bound repetition finding to cited evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 80 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
11Intentional-deception answerNo
Evidence basis
The cited evidence establishes material missing context, framing, delay, or partial delivery, but it does not directly establish Musk’s contemporaneous knowledge or purpose. Misleading outcome and intentional deception are evaluated separately.
Calculation rule
Require direct admission, adjudicated intent finding, or comparably conclusive state-of-mind evidence.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 80 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
12Strict promise resultFail
Evidence basis
Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: False (False — Missed Deadline). Evidence finding: Neuralink did not begin its first human implant trial until 2024. Evidence: Musk's missed Neuralink FDA deadlines; Neuralink implants brain chip in first human; Neuralink reports 21 trial participants in 2026. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musks-missed-deadlines-fda-approval-neuralink-brain-chip-trials-2023-03-02/; https://www.reuters.com/technology/neuralink-implants-brain-chip-first-human-musk-says-2024-01-29/; https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/elon-musks-neuralink-says-it-has-21-participants-enrolled-trials-2026-01-28/
Calculation rule
Pass only if every material promise or forecast term was met; otherwise Fail, Pending, Unresolved, or Not applicable.
- Evidence strength
- 80 / 100
- Verdict confidence
- 80 / 100 · Medium-High
- Audit status
- Complete
Audit trail
Selection and scoring notes.
- v5 classification rationale
- Strict promise rule: pass only when every material term, including timing, scope, quantity, capability, price, and permanence, was met. Any matured material miss is False and earns 0; later delivery is contextual only. Applied result: False (False — Missed Deadline). Evidence finding: Neuralink did not begin its first human implant trial until 2024. Evidence: Musk's missed Neuralink FDA deadlines; Neuralink implants brain chip in first human; Neuralink reports 21 trial participants in 2026. URLs: https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musks-missed-deadlines-fda-approval-neuralink-brain-chip-trials-2023-03-02/; https://www.reuters.com/technology/neuralink-implants-brain-chip-first-human-musk-says-2024-01-29/; https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/elon-musks-neuralink-says-it-has-21-participants-enrolled-trials-2026-01-28/
- v4 → v5 source-package migration audit
- Reclassified. verdict: Misleading -> False display: Materially Late -> False — Missed Deadline score: 50 -> 0 Reviewed under strict deadline-and-terms pass/fail rule; later delivery cannot earn partial credit.
- Selection basis
- High-impact, concrete, externally verifiable claim or dated commitment
- Source quality
- Primary source and/or major wire, official record, or established fact-checker V4 evidence metrics: statement 26/30; outcome 34/40; corroboration 8/15; directness 12/15.
- Methodology note
- V5 uses strict-promise-v1.0. Later delivery does not earn partial credit for a missed dated promise. Scored under the v2 Misleading category at 50 points. This verdict measures demonstrated reliability and does not by itself establish deceptive intent.